2011 End of Year Prediction Round-Up


We’ve reached another October, and our beloved Nats have gone into hibernation, yet again.  At some point in the next few years reaching real fall weather won’t mean it’s time for Nats park to close up – hopefully it will mean sweater and oat-weather games with desperate hope to keep going.  This year, our boys are done, but with more accomplishments for the team record books and more hope for next spring.

Back in February, Ashley and I made some predictions about how this year would turn out.  We did a mid-season re-evaluation of those predictions, and now present our final scores. Here’s how the scoring works: 1 point for a correct pick (if not revised), a half point for a correct revised pick, minus 1 for every win off on win total, minus 1 for every place off in the division.

Morse swings for the fences
1)  Who will lead the Nats in home runs in 2011?

First Ladies Answer: Jayson Werth
Revised Prediction: Michael Morse
Final HR Leader: Michael Morse

Sticking with Mikey-Mo halfway through the season was the right choice.  Our buddy ended up with 31 homers for the year, while Jayson had 20, which was good enough for third.  (Points Total: 0.5/1)

Espinosa RBI
2)  Who will lead the Nats in RBI?

First Ladies Answer:
Adam LaRoche
Revised Prediction:Danny Espinosa
Final RBI Leader: Michael Morse

If only Danny hadn’t slumped in the late summer.  But it also helps that Michael had a lot of homers this year.  Sadly, we get no points.  (Points Total: 0.5/2)

On the bag
3)  Who will lead the Nats in stolen bases?

First Ladies Answer: Nyjer Morgan
Revised Prediction: Roger Bernadina
Final Stolen Base Leader: Ian Desmond

Another wrong answer.  Bernadina had 17 total for the year, while Desmond closed things out with 25.  (Points Total: 0.5/3)

4)  Who will lead the staff in wins?

First Ladies Answer: Jordan Zimmermann
Winningest Pitcher: John Lannan

If J-Z had run support, or had the opportunity to pitch more games, he would definitely have been more of a contender for this, but we don’t begrudge Lannan his winningest season ever..  (Points Total: 0.5/4)

Drew up close
5)  Who will lead the staff in saves?

First Ladies Answer: Drew Storen
Savingest Pitcher: Drew Storen

43 saves for Drew!  Hot Damn! (Points Total: 1.5/5)

Lannan on the mound
6)  Which starter will lead the team in starts?

First Ladies Answer: John Lannan
Pitcher with Most Starts: John Lannan

It’s easy to get the most starts when you’re allowed to pitch through an entire season.  (Points Total: 2.5/6)

7)  Who will pitch more innings for the Nats this season: Chien-Ming Wang, Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler?

First Ladies Answer: Chien-Ming Wang
Revised Prediction: Ross Detweiler
Most Starts: Ross Detweiler

Detweiler got the most innings pitched, but not by a lot.  He had 66 over Wang’s 62  (Points Total: 3/7)

Ankiel at bat
8)  Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season:  Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston, Alberto Gonzalez?

First Ladies Answer: Rick Ankiel
Most At Bats:
Rick Ankiel

With Gonzo traded before opening day, and Hairston traded mid-season, Ankiel is the last man standing.  (Points Total: 4/8)

Ramos at bat
9)  Who will get more at bats for the Nats this season:  Ivan Rodriguez, Jesus Flores, Wilson Ramos?

First Ladies Answer: Jesus Flores
Revised Prediction: Wilson Ramos
Most At Bats:
Wilson Ramos

With the Nats keeping Pudge and Ramos in the bigs to start, and Flores only coming up to the Show mid-season, Ramos got all the attention.  (Points Total: 4.5/9)

10)  How many all-stars will the Nats have?  Who?

First Ladies Answer: 2; Ryan Zimmerman and Tyler Clippard.
Real Answer: 1; Tyler Clippard.

This is actually two questions.  We didn’t get the number of All-Star players right, but we did get one of the players (Goggles the Vulture!), so we give ourselves 1 point out of two available.  (Points Total: 5.5/11)

High Fives
11)  Total wins and what place in the division?

First Ladies Answer: 78 Wins; 3rd Place
Total Wins; Place in Division:
80 wins, 3rd place

Another stealthy two-part question!  But since this one is more about how “off” we were with our predictions, we stick with our 5.5 point base from the last question, and realize that since we got the third place part right, we get 1 point, but two points off for two wins off (though I think we should get points for predicting the close to 10-point leap). (Points Total: 4.5/11)

Final Point Total: 4.5 – Less than 50%, but considering we made these guesses 7 months ago, we did pretty good. 🙂


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